Sage Time Value™

About This App
  • Similar in concept to calculating the present values of financial assets using interest rates, the app uses the market median price rate of change to assess the present value of a vehicle. The market median price represents the true middle of the market and is the best measure of change in value over time for vehicle markets.
  • The app appreciates or depreciates a vehicle from a given price using the trend applied to a stated holding period. It also forecasts the price of vehicle at a future point in time using the same price trend.
  • A shift in medians represents a shift in the entire market as a whole. Not just a change in a few high or low priced or mileage vehicles which can strongly influence biased measurements like averages.
  • Because the trend is based upon the change in market median price the trend applies equally to retail and wholesale pricing.
How It Works
  • Submit a VIN, the trend number of days back, the vehicle holding period number of days back, the price and mileage at the start of the holding period and the current mileage.
  • The trend number of days back to use can be evaluated using the Enhanced Price Timeline chart.
  • The Sage Time Value app calculates the daily rate of change over the trend period. It then applies that rate of change to the price at the start of the holding period to estimate the price today.
  • It then uses the estimate of today’s price to extrapolate the future value using the same trend daily rate of change.
  • The trend number of days back can be the same number of days as the holding period if desired to have the trend match the holding period.
  • The app also provides price and mileage median central tendency data at both the trend start and current dates.
View A Video On Using This App
How To Apply This App
  • Understand what the price of a vehicle is today when adjusted for the change in median market values over a trend period. Forecast a future price using the same price trend. Because of the use of market median values, the trend can be applied equally to retail and wholesale pricing.
  • Median values are used as the best measure of value changes as whole for a marque+model+submodel+body as they are not influenced by a few high or low priced vehicles which can strongly influence measurements like averages. Using medians also eliminates the need to pick an exact start date for the trend in order to avoid a trend calculation error which has been substantially skewed by a few outlier vehicles in the market inventory on a given day.
  • The trend period can be the holding period or a different period identified by examining the trajectory of the market at a starting point in time. To identify the trend period to use, visually assess the Enhanced Price Timeline chart. From the chart tooltip select the number of days from the current date to use for the trend.
  • The holding period for the vehicle is the actual time over which the vehicle’s starting price will be appreciated or depreciated by the trend. It represents the time since the vehicle was acquired.
  • The shorter the holding period the less reliable it will be if used as the trend period. Measurable trends are typically experienced over longer periods of time. Available vehicle trend periods in the Sage Time Value app vary by marque+model+submodel+body. Trend periods longer than 720 days are not recommended as they are typically statistically invalid.
  • Enter the number of days in the future to forecast a price using the selected trend.
  • Enter the price and mileage at the start of the holding period and the current mileage.
  • The app returns the vehicle’s present value when the price rate of change is applied to the price at the start of the holding period. It also returns the future value at the trend price rate of change as of the future date.
  • The app returns the daily rate of change statistics for price and mileage over the trend period.
  • The app returns the price and mileage median central tendency data at both the trend start and current dates.

Please Subscribe Or Upgrade To Access This Application Or Chart

This application or chart is only available to SC Sage subscribers with the required service level. Please review the Subscriber Level Services Chart (see menu Join/Subscribe/Comparison) and subscribe to the level required access this content.

Already a member? Log in here